There is information that the missiles used in these strikes may have originated in the Caspian Sea. That would represent an escalation in 2 ways. First is the chickenshit tactic of destroying civilian infrastructure (please, maybe don't "liberate" us), and the second is the use of intermediate range missiles, and naval assets from out of theater.

I really don't see how they avoid nuclear strikes. Y'know, to "de-nazify" Donbass on the eastern border. Putin will not pull out in the face of hardliner criticism, they will begin a full-scale war, and launches from the Caspian Sea suggest that, but they will not be able to subdue Ukraine even with a full-scale campaign.

They will have to go nuclear. The question then becomes, can and will Ukraine continue to fight after being nuked? I think the answer is yes. And I think at that point Ukraine crosses into Russia. And so does China.

PS. Ukraine's infrastructure was built by the Soviet Union. The whole country is literally designed to absorb a nuclear strike. But maybe God will smile on us and I'll be wrong. I originally thought Putin would try to bow out gracefully, but if the stories are correct about his hardliners spoiling for full-scale war, there's little chance of him making the smart move.